Newb Trading

KNOL

2006-08-02T22:31:00.000-04:00

Following this stock for a while and it finally broke resistance with good volume yesterday.

knol080206, originally uploaded by elmer_tang.

OMNI

2006-08-02T22:30:00.000-04:00

Been on an uptrend and looking to test recent highs.

omni080206, originally uploaded by elmer_tang.

KNOL

2006-07-26T22:37:00.000-04:00

Been following this stock for a while. Will it break resistance this time?

knol072606, originally uploaded by elmer_tang.

Nasdaq Surge

2006-07-26T22:36:00.000-04:00

Haven't had the chance to update recently but here's a chart analysis for COMPQ.

compq072606, originally uploaded by elmer_tang.

Midday

2006-07-19T13:31:00.000-04:00

Market responds positively to earnings and Bernanke's speech for the congress. I read the speech and it sounds like he is leaving the door open on pausing. He acknowledges the recent rate hikes might still be in the pipeline and its full effects may not have surfaced and they need to becareful not to go too far. He is concerned about the CPI and the rise in oil prices. He doesn't sound too optimistic about oil prices falling back to previous levels and staying there.

Nasdaq right now has past its resistance at ~2074, lets see if it can stay there.

Earnings

2006-07-18T23:10:00.000-04:00

Yahoo met expectations and IBM beat expectations after the bell today. I expect the Nasdaq to react positively to this. We've been waiting for some good news for a while and this might be good enough to get people buying again. With another huge list of companies reporting tomorrow, there won't be any big rallies. Oil also isn't as overbought anymore so it might bounce back from the two down days.

Intel, eBay, Qualcomm are a few big names that will be reporting tomorrow.

compq071806, originally uploaded by elmer_tang.

Oil on the rise

2006-07-16T19:28:00.000-04:00

The violence in the Middle East has only intensified over the weekend. The G-8 has one voice saying that the violence must stop but has not done much except criticizing the parties involved. Not much action...not much result.

Overseas oil prices now trading at $77.68, slightly higher than friday's close.

Have a good weekend

2006-07-14T21:57:00.000-04:00

Nothing new to write about. Market continues its way down. What the international community does about the crisis in the middle east may detemine what happens Monday.

Enjoy the video(not related to the market for once) and the weekend.

G8 Summit

2006-07-14T10:29:00.000-04:00

Its clear that the leaders at the G8 summit all want an end to the violence in the Middle East. There's a good chance that Israel will be pressured into a cease fire. Lebanon had already commited itself to a cease fire less 24 hours ago.

This might be a turning point for the stock market as oil will ease back.

More importantly though is that a full out war may be prevented and no more innocent lives are lost.

Another sell-off

2006-07-13T16:50:00.000-04:00

The Nasdaq dropped below technical support at ~2070 and just kept dropping. I had to pull up the one year chart to find the next support level, that pretty much sums it up.

So the reason for the drop seems to be middle east tensions which may affect oil supplies. High oil prices add to inflation which leads to rate hike concerns again. So I'm wondering how is it possible that the market can go up in the longer term if high oil prices have such a negative impact on the market. For what reasons would oil prices actually decline and stall at a comfortable level? I can't seem to think of one.

The market should technically bounce according to the CCI and Stoichastics. The volatility indicator isn't quite high enough to justify panic selling.

In the short-term the markets may bounce but hows it possible for the market to break its downtrend when oil prices aren't going to lower significantly anytime soon?

Sounding bearish and MAD. LOL =)

Lone Star

2006-07-12T21:42:00.000-04:00

KNOL is the lone star on my list of watched stocks. Broke out of the ascending triangle pattern a week ago but has been strong for the last three days.

Starting with the hammer candlestick on monday and following up with two strong gains on higher volume compared to the two down days prior to this series.

Stock is not overbought yet but no longer oversold.

knol120706, originally uploaded by elmer_tang.

2006-07-12T21:30:00.000-04:00

Ouch
Big drop today on the Nasdaq after a slight rally yesterday. Giving back every gain and more today, it continues to look bearish. Only hope is that support holds up near 2074 and that indicators showing near oversold conditions encourage buying.

2006-07-11T12:47:00.000-04:00

Name change
I feel that 'Trading' is more valid than 'Investing' for this blog because of the short time frames and the pure technical analysis I do on the stocks.

It really doesn't matter but it just bugged me. =)

2006-07-10T18:10:00.000-04:00

Nasdaq really looks THAT bad?
As much as I'd like to prove everyone else who's been saying this wrong, I can't. The good news is the chart could look even worse. Lets hope it doesn't break that trendline tomorrow.

2006-07-08T11:47:00.000-04:00

Oil
Prices should pullback somewhat next week due to overbought conditions. If the pullback occurs, it would be a good opportunity to pick up some oil stocks. The summer has just started and I believe these oil prices will continue to rise after this pullback. The key resistance right now is at $75.

Earning season begins this Monday with Alcoa reporting. Most analysts believe that these sets of earnings will continue to be strong and drive the market up. If earnings reports are good and oil pulls back slightly, the coming weeks may be positive for bulls. BUT with 3M's recent warning results may not be as upbeat as analysts want them to be and maybe commodity prices are starting to hit profits.

2006-07-06T23:22:00.000-04:00

IMCO
Opportunity to buy off the trendline?

2006-07-06T10:56:00.000-04:00

Record price breaks

AD	35.95	11.69	4,987,100		Record Price Break Out
DLP	32.23	2.94	227,700		Record Price Break Out

(source: clearstation)

2006-07-05T20:31:00.000-04:00

SIMC
Heres a stock which I started tracking after it was recommended on Knight Trader blog. Fundementally speaking this stock isn't something I normally would invest in since it has such a high P/E. But, the chart does look really strong. Today with the Nasdaq down 1.69%, it still was able to put up a 5% gain.

2006-07-04T22:20:00.000-04:00

KNOL Chart
Looks good but insider sale near 52-week high.

2006-06-30T07:09:00.000-04:00

A-list today:

Symbol	Last	Change	Volume	Event
LVS	74.04	4.94	3,273,500	Record Price Break Out
NFB	30.43	0.41	4,503,500	Record Price Break Out
PCAR	82.08	2.88	1,131,524	Record Price Break Out
RSAS	22.87	3.52	11,477,430	Record Price Break Out
BBY	55.20	2.55	4,261,700	Trending Up
UTX	63.29	1.96	3,732,400	Trending Up
BOOM	33.23	2.31	793,224	Trending Up
HLTH	11.69	0.29	2,187,943	Trending Up
HPQ	32.02	0.44	12,872,300	OverSold
MNI	39.70	0.70	1,552,900	OverSold
GENZ	61.59	0.38	2,597,194	OverSold
RBAK	18.50	1.12	1,997,569	OverSold
DUK	29.69	1.31	10,234,000	Analyst Upgrade
IGT	37.18	1.25	3,721,300	Analyst Upgrade
SIMG	10.86	1.73	5,121,527	Analyst Upgrade
TLAB	13.41	0.54	8,486,466	Analyst Upgrade

2006-06-29T19:00:00.000-04:00

Changing my opinion on Etrade
Now that the Fed has said what they had to say, I feel that the online brokerage sector which was one of the hardest hit during the sell off will start to recover. The reason why my opinion was 'short' even when it bounced and gained nearly 10% in one day was because I felt that inflation fears and the reason behind the sell off were still there. Things look to be different now so I am going to change my opinion to 'long'.

A few posts ago I did a techinical analysis on Etrade. I must admit that was pretty dumb as any rules would not have applied following the Fed.

2006-06-29T14:25:00.000-04:00

25 basis point hike
FOMC Statement
I just finished wiping sweat off my forehead. Haha...

2006-06-28T16:22:00.000-04:00

BA Hammer Candlestick?
I hope so. I'm sure this hammer will mean nothing if the Fed's decision is negative tomorrow but if its not it might signal a push back above 50 MA.

For those who don't know what I am talking about:
"The hammer typically appears after a prolonged downtrend. During the period of the hammer candle, the stock or index experiences strong selling. As the day or week goes on, however, it recovers and closes near the unchanged mark -- and sometimes even higher. In these cases, the market is potentially "hammering" out a bottom." --streetauthority.com

2006-06-28T14:45:00.000-04:00

Not much action
An hour and a bit more till closing and the two indices are up modestly. Regardless of todays outcome tomorrows Fed descision is whats going to determine the markets future. The market looks like its on hold for this reason. I'm nervous about tomorrows decision as there has been more and more rumours about a half point hike which the market will not take positively. We will see, quarter point hike with signal of possible pause will mean a huge rally.

2006-06-27T19:39:00.000-04:00

Frustration! Grrr
Not about the market this time.

I don't use IE often and I haven't viewed this blog with it ever. When I loaded the site I saw what all of you have been seeing...a site that looked like it was just hacked. Sorry to all the IE users. I fixed the CSS code and posts that defaced my site. Please email me if similar problems occur in the future.

2006-06-27T17:21:00.000-04:00

ET Chart Analysis
I didn't do a chart analysis on Etrade last time so here it is, and it doesn't look too good. The market was down overall today but ET was hammered more than 5%. It looks like it may repeat history with another run downwards towards oversold.

2006-06-26T22:37:00.000-04:00

Market Recap

With huge merger news in the mining sector, and surprising jump in home sales, the market reluctantly ended up in positive territory with Dow up 0.51% and NASDAQ up 0.58%. Everyone is hesitant and waiting for Bernanke's interest rate decision rate on Thursday. If it turns out to be a half point increase instead of a quarter, oh my. I think the market will rally on a quarter point hike as the stock prices have already priced that in.

Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sale will be the two key indicators to drive the market tomorrow. But similar to today's big merger news, they will be overshadowed by the FOMC decision coming this Thursday.

2006-06-26T13:28:00.000-04:00

New blog features
- Added Dow and Nasdaq charts to the sidebar.
- Added Email link. Feel free to send me any comments or requests like chart analysis...etc.
- Click on symbols in the pick list and it will bring you to the article.

To do:
- Add quotes for my pick list.

2006-06-23T13:48:00.000-04:00

GOL Linhas Areas Inteligentes S.A. (GOL)
Price:$34.40
Opinion: Up

Profile: Provides airline services in Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, and Para
guay. The company's services include passenger, cargo, and charter services.

The stock is trending positively:
- +DN crossing -DN on the ADX indicator.
- Broke above the 50 MA.
- Crossed the moving average and touching the upper band on the Bollinger bands.
- Faster moving average crossing above the slower on MACD.
- Its near overbought but the stock has shown that it can stay overbought for over
a month when trending strongly.
- Its still about 16% off of its 52-week high of $41.25.

2006-06-23T12:05:00.000-04:00

Good Article

2006-06-21T19:14:00.000-04:00

Market rallies back with a vengence today! As for my picks? Maybe I should start calling them something else. ET up close to 5% and ADM showed tons of weakness by dropping 1.5% with oil gaining and market rallying.

I still think its not smooth sailing for discount brokers until after next week. I don't understand ADM's weakness. Time will tell.

BA rose another 1%. Not alot considering the huge rally but its really overbought right now.

Jim Cramer has been getting criticized alot by his followers for his almost daily flip flopping between being bearish and bullish about the market. He has been flip flopping alot but circumstances change day to day, if he doesn't change his stance to reflect the current situation people would criticize him for not seeing it. Tons of other market analysts make mistakes, they just aren't as closely watched. So I guess... just got to do our own homework!

2006-06-21T19:13:00.000-04:00

BA good news?

2006-06-20T20:03:00.000-04:00

Archer Daniels Midland(ADM): $39.25
A stock that has really benefited from soaring oil prices and the alternative energy hype because it is the largest ethanol producer in the U.S. It seems that the higher the oil prices, the better this stock does. I think that oil prices can easily shoot higher from here with the Iran situation and hurricane season in the States so I am going to pick this stock as a buy. It is near oversold and the last two times this stock was oversold, it came soaring back with 15% and 10% price increases. Its near its 50 MA and may make the leap with some help from higher oil prices.

Related link

2006-06-20T19:39:00.000-04:00

Good analysis on Boeing(BA)

2006-06-16T13:09:00.000-04:00

Etrade(ET): $21.50
P/E: 17.5 Qtrly Rev Growth: 37.5%
Held this stock from 23 up to 27.50 but didn't sell because I was greedy. The company has been beating earning's estimates consistently and was trending up when I bought it but it seems like a different story now.There has been a huge sell-off for the online brokerage sector since inflation concerns began. Investors feared that if the bear market begins revenue from transaction commissions will be lowered.When the market is up and your stock is down, something is wrong. During the sell off, ET has performed far worse than the Dow.

Short term: Lower
There's still a risk that the fed will go too far with the interest rate hikes. Online brokerage sector was hit hard last week for this and nothing has really changed. The stock rose nearly 10% yesterday because it was oversold but still down close to 14% from May. I believe it will
trade lower than 22 until its next earnings release. I think the company is great in the long run, else I wouldn't have bought it. Investors are worried that the recent increase in online trading activity will discontinue once the market is less bulllish. Online trading is actually not a huge chunk of ET's revenue but I think alot of investors don't know this and will price this stock down regardless.

2006-06-15T09:10:00.000-04:00

Bought BA at 82.49
I feel positive about the price eventhough it gained 6% yesterday. The drop in price from 89+ started in May which corresponds with the market crashing from fear of inflation so I feel that once the market gets back on track BA will be 89+ again. Everyone's kind of accepted the fact that the fed will raise in late june by .25. I think some ppl were worried that they would raise .50 or raise many more times after this but the CPI and PPI data shows a slow down in the economy which may suggest that the Fed will pause after late june.

But then again, we thought they'd pause last time and the time before that too! ?_?

Feel free to comment! =)